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Population transfer and insurgent conflict

ABSTRACT: An agreement ending civil war between an insurgent separatist group and the state can occur if the state accepts an agreement in principle that state sponsored population transfer into the insurgent “homeland” territory does not dilute the legitimacy of insurgent claims to the territory. Such an agreement becomes increasingly possible if the insurgents accept an agreement in principle that minority population homogeneity in the contested territory will not be pursued. On the occasions where the insurgents will have been engaging in hostile acts toward the “settler” population that has arrived as part of a state sponsored population transfer program, the insurgents see their anti-settler campaign as a means of obtaining self-determination. The state sees the population transfer program as a method of strengthening its claim of territorial integrity. A mediation effort would then have to gain an insurgency commitment to end the anti-settler campaign, so that it would be not seen as a threat to the territorial integrity or national sovereignty of the entire state.

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