Why is the atmosphere so predictable?

Speaker: Dr Mike Cullen (Met Office, Exeter)

Time: 2:15PM
Date: Thu 22nd November 2007

Location: Mathematical Sciences Seminar Room


The atmosphere evolves according to well-known physical laws. However, direct solution of these laws is impracticable because of the complexity of the solutions. Modern computer models have to solve an averaged form of the equations.

Accurate predictions, such as are routinely made by operational centres, depend on there being a degree of large-scale control in the system. The talk describes and illustrates recent theoretical advances in understanding how this takes place. In particular, it is possible to create models which describe only the large-scale flows associated with weather systems, and prove that they can be solved independently.

(This talk is part of the Meteorology series.)