Modelling Irish Mortality at the Highest Ages.

Speaker: Dr Shane Whelan (School of Maths Sciences, UCD)

Time: 3:00PM

Date: Thu 25th September 2008

Location: Statistics Seminar Room- Library building

We discuss the problems of estimating mortality at ages above 80 years, taking Irish data as a case study. We demonstrate that the official Irish Life tables have systematically overstated mortality since the 1950s with the bias tending to increase with increasing age. Using several models we re-estimate mortality rates at advanced ages, basing the crude rates on the method of extinct generations. We show that the Kannisto version of Perks's logistic curve appears best. We conclude by outlining an extension to the method of extinct generations that appears more natural than the survivor ratio method.

(This talk is part of the Statistics and Actuarial Science series.)