Reducing errors of wind speed forecasts by an optimal combination of post-processing methods

Speaker: Conor Sweeney (UCD)

Time: 3.00 PM

Date: Thursday 13th December 2012

Location: Statistics Seminar Room L550B, 5th floor, Library Building


Seven adaptive approaches to post-processing wind speed forecasts are discussed and compared. Forecasts of the wind speed over 48 h are run at horizontal resolutions of 7 and 3 km for a domain centred over Ireland. Forecast wind speeds over a 2 year period are compared to observed wind speeds at seven synoptic stations around Ireland and skill scores calculated. Two automatic methods for combining forecast streams are applied. The forecasts produced by the combined methods give bias and root mean squared errors that are better than the numerical weather prediction forecasts at all station locations. One of the combined forecast methods results in skill scores that are equal to or better than all of its component forecast streams. This method is straightforward to apply and should prove beneficial in operational wind forecasting.

Series: Statistics Seminar Series