STAT40160 Actuarial Statistics I

Academic Year 2020/2021

Game and Decision Theory.Basic elements of zero-sum two person gamesBayes and minimax criteria for decision makingLoss Distributions.Classic distributions used for modelling in insurance and financeImpact of Reinsurance on LossSimulating Loss distributionsClaims Reserving and Run-off Triangles.Bornhuetter Ferguson methodRisk Theory.Collective and Individual Risk models for aggregate losses.

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Curricular information is subject to change

Learning Outcomes:

To be able to formulate basic decision making problems in a structured manner and understand the use of basic criteria. To be able to select appropriate probability distributions for use in modelling losses in insurance and banking. To know how to predict and determine reserves for claims and losses taking into account trends and inflation. To be able to use software to estimate outstanding claims. To be able to select a reasonable model for short term aggregate losses in a portfolio of policies or loans.

Indicative Module Content:

Game and Decision Theory.
Loss Distributions.
Impact of Reinsurance on Loss
Simulating Loss distributions
Claims Reserving and Run-off Triangles.
Bornhuetter Ferguson method
Risk Theory.

Student Effort Hours: 
Student Effort Type Hours
Lectures

18
Small Group

6
Tutorial

10
Computer Aided Lab

2
Autonomous Student Learning

114
Total

150
Approaches to Teaching and Learning:
active/task-based learning; lectures; reflective learning; lab work; enquiry & problem-based learning. video lectures 
Requirements, Exclusions and Recommendations
Learning Requirements:

A good basic knowledge of probability and statistics theory is a requirement to take this course.

Learning Recommendations:

Students should have a knowledge of statistical inference at a level equivalent to that which would be achieved upon completion of STAT20100, STAT20110, STAT30240.


Module Requisites and Incompatibles
Not applicable to this module.
 
Assessment Strategy  
Description Timing Open Book Exam Component Scale Must Pass Component % of Final Grade
Continuous Assessment: regular Varies over the Trimester n/a Other No

20
Examination: Final 2 hour exam 2 hour End of Trimester Exam No Other No

80

Carry forward of passed components
Yes
 
Resit In Terminal Exam
Spring Yes - 2 Hour
Please see Student Jargon Buster for more information about remediation types and timing. 
Feedback Strategy/Strategies

• Feedback individually to students, post-assessment
• Group/class feedback, post-assessment

How will my Feedback be Delivered?

assignments individually graded and returned to students, group feedback in tutorials

Name Role
Mr Xian Yao Gwee Tutor