Prof Eugene O'Brien, professor of civil engineering in UCD's School of Architecture, Landscape and Civil Engineering has made a breakthrough in predicting where potholes will appear on our roads, which will enable road crews to carry out preventative repairs at a much lower cost before full road resurfacing becomes necessary.
Prof O'Brien’s prediction method relies on Bayesian statistics and mathematical models which can predict where damage will appear on a road surface, and give an indication of when a road surface is likely to fail.
He made the discovery through a research project that analysed the data from 16 pressure sensors on a Dutch motorway. These pressure sensors are designed to weigh trucks as they pass overhead at full highway speed.
Working with student Abraham Belay and University of Nottingham colleague Dr Andrew Collop, he found that the sensors provided a much wider range of information on how a truck was bouncing and rocking on the road surface. These motions are hugely variable but he identified predictable patterns in the average responses of big populations of trucks.
From his measurements, Prof O'Brien has developed a "road damage model" that can indicate not alone where subsurface fracturing will occur, causing breakdown, but also give an indication of how long it will take for the damage to appear. The model was developed by calculating the force exerted on the road which depends on two factors: the road surface profile and the characteristics of a given truck (stiffness of springs, suspension dampening, tyre stiffness and other attributes).
"It takes different lengths of time to damage the pavement. What is most exciting is we should be able to detect the patterns early,” Prof O’Brien commented.
Once damage begins to occur, it changes the road surface profile. A feedback begins to occur, accentuating later damage. "Once the pattern becomes self perpetuating, complete failure of the road follows pretty quickly", Prof O'Brien says.
Virtually all the surface breakdown on roads is due to overweight trucks, with cars making little or no difference at all.
