Mon 21st
15:00 - 16:30
|
Geary Institute
Seminar Room |
"Dangerous pathways: simulating the dynamics of securitizating the nation at the example of the former Yugoslavia"
- Dr Martin Neumann, Institute of Sociology, Aachen University
Abstract
Using the example of conflict escalation in former Yugoslavia, an agent-based model of the mechanisms leading to conflict escalation is developed in this paper. Escalation of ethno-nationalist violence is described by the recursive feedback loop between political actors and citizens. Here the framework of the theory of securitization is used. While war crimes where undertaken (to a large degree) by paramilitary militia that where not integrated into the command structure of the Yugoslavian army, politicial entrepreneurs where able to stimulate the corresponding political athmosphere by declaring the nation as an object under threat.
The model consists of two agent classes: politicians, who enforce value orientations, and citizens, who may form paramilitary militia. To represent the cognitive complexity, the the simulation tool EMIL-S is used. First simulation results conform that the escalation dynamics is enforced by political actors. However, citizens are not passive entities. Their response seem to depend on their network structures. In future work these tentative results have to be further analysed. |