A brighter forecast for maths (27/02/13)
Rain or shine, the weather has an impact on our everyday lives, and many of us listen keenly to the forecasts after news bulletins. But did you know that maths plays a central role in figuring out whether we are going to need wellies or sunglasses in the days to come? Today we can predict weather patterns reasonably well four or five days ahead, but it wasn’t always so, explains Professor Peter Lynch, Professor of Meteorology at UCD School of Mathematical Sciences.....
When he started work as a forecaster with Met Éireannin Shannon Airport almost four decades ago, even the one-day forecast was a bit dubious, he explains.
“Forecasting at the time was pretty awful,” he recalls. “So the way forward was to use mathematical methods to model the atmosphere. And Met Éireann was starting off with computer forecasting - that was a rapidly developing area and there were a lot of interesting scientific challenges.”
The field has since earned some bragging rights, according to Professor Lynch, because weather forecasting skill has improved - though there are still some challenges, particularly around rainfall. “Everybody wants to know if it’s going to be a dry day for the match next Sunday, it’s still hard to answer that,” he says.
More recently, Professor Lynch has been looking to improve local wind forecasts, which are of particular interest for wind farms. “A wind farm is at a specific location, it might be on the side of a hill and the local topography is going to affect the flow strongly,” he says. So Professor Lynch, Dr Conor Sweeney and PhD student Jennifer Courtney want to improve the accuracy of prediction with more appropriate statistical approaches, and it stands to help wind farm managers plan how to use resources, he explains. “The energy goes up as the cube of the wind speed, so a very small change in wind speed can make a big difference in available energy - and even if it’s bad news and there is no wind tomorrow, you want to know that rather than hope in vain.”
Getting a handle on the future is also important in the bid to address climate change, and again mathematical modelling can help to anticipate what is going to happen at various scales. Professor Lynch is working with Dr Paul Nolan to analyse regional patterns in Ireland, particularly of extreme rainfall.
As well as research, Professor Lynch has been a driving force behind the Masters in Meteorology run by the UCD Meteorology and Climate Centre, which trains up the next generation of forecasters and climatologists. And in recent years he has moved into popularising maths with his blog (thatsmaths.com) and frequent columns in The Irish Times.
“I have always had a deep passion for mathematics, it’s really the love of my life - it’s not only useful but it’s also beautiful and it’s great fun as well,” says Professor Lynch. “I try to stress in the column all the practical applications, basically why is maths important, and I think if a few young people read the columns and get an interest, then it’s worthwhile.”
Professor Peter Lynch, Professor of Meteorology at UCD School of Mathematical Sciences, was interviewed by freelance journalist Dr Claire O'Connell.
