The Asian Economic Panel (AEP) was successfully held at University College Dublin on May 11-12, 2023. The forum was hosted by UCD Irish Institute for Chinese Studies (IICS) and UCD Confucius Institute for Ireland (CII), and co-organized by the Center for Sustainable Development (CSD) at Columbia University, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) of the United Nations, and the Chinese Economic Association (CEA, Europe/UK).
The two-day forum was divided into three sessions: paper presentations, expert reviews and open discussions. Experts discussed the threats and impacts of economic de-globalization in the Cold War 2.0 era, the digital economy, the Sino-US trade war, and China's double-cycle and inner-cycle strategies, exploring possible solutions and sustainable development for Asia's major economies in response to the "New Cold War".
The forum was attended by more than 30 experts and scholars from 14 countries including Ireland, the UK, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. Prof. Wing Thye Woo, Vice President (Asia) of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (UNSDSN), opened the session with a welcome speech by Prof. Liming Wang, followed by his presentation on the impact of China's internal recycling strategy on the performance of the Chinese stock market and investor behavior in the context of de-globalization, with comments by Prof. Ming Lu from Shanghai Jiaotong University. Professor Fukunari Kimura from Keio University (Japan) pointed out that the geopolitical tensions in Northeast Asia and the confrontation between China and the United States have shifted Japan's economic policy towards national security objectives, and his empirical analysis showed the impact of export controls by the United States and its allies on East Asian manufacturing production supply chains and Japanese trade. Professor Sungbae An from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, analyzed the impact of import penetration and export growth on the outcome of the Korean political elections. Professor Maria Joy Abrencia from the University of the Philippines assessed the pros and cons of the choice between ambiguity and coherence in Philippine national strategy in the context of superpower trade decoupling. Professor Chol Bunnag argued that Thailand's response to the US-China trade war has been to diversify its international trade by gradually shifting its trade to other T25 countries, such as ASEAN countries, India and Turkey. Then, Professor Yose Rizal Damuri from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta systematically assessed the history of Indonesia's participation in the global economy around three dimensions: trade, investment and production, and examined the current shift to a more inward-looking policy in Indonesia.
In addition, experts at the conference analyzed and discussed the Sino-US relations and the impact of the trade war on the economic development of the Asian region. For example, Prof. Andrew Kam Jia Yi from National University of Malaysia pointed out that Malaysia's neutral stance in the Sino-US trade war has left some room for trade and investment from both sides; Prof. Fredrik Sjoholm from the European Union Institute for Industrial Economics presented the transformation of the EU's economic policy, especially international trade and industrial policy. Prof. Chun-Chien Kuo from the National Taipei University of Commerce explained Taiwan's dilemma and role in economic globalization under Cold War 2.0. Prof. Wei Tian of Peking University reported on an empirical analysis of the role of China's retaliatory tariffs on firms' imports during the US-China trade war.
Professor Huizheng Liu from the Beijing University of Technology used a quasi-natural experiment to study the impact of import trade liberalization on China's export growth pattern from 1995-2020. Prof. Xuan Vinh Vo from Ho Chi Minh City University combed through Vietnam's path toward a digital economy.
The Asian Economic Panel, co-hosted by UCD Irish Institute for Chinese Studies (IICS) and UCD Confucius Institute, was the first offline meeting in Ireland since the COVID-19 pandemic.
亚洲经济论坛在都柏林大学成功举行
2023年5月11日-12日，亚洲经济论坛Asian Economic Panel (AEP)在都柏林大学成功举行。本次论坛由都柏林大学爱尔兰中国研究院和孔子学院主办，哥伦比亚大学可持续发展中心（CSD）、韩国国际经济政策研究所（KIEP）、东盟和东亚经济研究所（ERIA）、联合国可持续发展解决方案网络（SDSN）、欧洲和英国中国经济学会协办。
持续两天的论坛分为三个环节：论文报告、专家点评以及开放式讨论。与会专家围绕冷战2.0时代经济去全球化的威胁和影响、数字经济、中美贸易战、中国双循环与内循环策略等话题展开了热烈讨论，探索亚洲主要经济体如何应对“新冷战”可能的解决方案及可持续发展的出路。
论坛由来自爱尔兰、英国、日本、韩国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、泰国等14个国家的三十多位专家学者出席。联合国可持续发展解决方案网络的亚洲副总裁胡永泰教授主持了开场，由王黎明教授致欢迎辞，接着他就去全球化背景下，中国内循环战略对中国股市的表现及投资人行为的影响做了演讲，上海交通大学的陆铭教授作了点评；来自日本庆应大学（Keio University）的Fukunari Kimura教授指出，东北亚地缘政治局势的紧张和中美对抗使得日本的经济政策转向国家安全为目标，其实证分析表明美国及其盟国的出口管制对东亚制造业生产供应链及日本贸易的影响；来自韩国国际经济政策研究所的Sungbae An教授则分析了进口渗透率、出口增长对韩国政治选举结果的影响；来自菲律宾大学的Maria Joy Abrencia教授在超级大国贸易脱钩的背景下评估了菲律宾国家战略模糊性与一致性的选择利弊；Chol Bunnag教授指出泰国对中美贸易战的反应是将其国际贸易多元化，贸易对象逐步转向其他T25国家，如东盟国家、印度和土耳其等；而来自雅加达战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)的Yose Rizal Damuri教授围绕贸易、投资和生产三个方面系统地对印度尼西亚参与全球经济的历史进行了评估，并对当前印度尼西亚转而采取更加内向的政策进行了研判。
此外，与会专家就中美关系及贸易战影响亚洲区域经济发展——进行了分析和探讨。如来自马来西亚国民大学的Andrew Kam Jia Yi教授指出马来西亚在中美贸易战中采取的中立立场，为来自双方的贸易和投资均留有了一定余地；来自欧盟工业经济研究所的Fredrik Sjoholm教授呈现了欧盟（EU）的经济政策尤其是国际贸易和产业政策的转变。国立台北商业大学的郭俊贤教授阐释了冷战2.0下经济全球化中台湾的两难与角色。北京大学的田巍教授报告了中美贸易战期间中国报复性关税对企业进口的作用的实证分析。
自北京工业大学的刘会政教授采用准自然实验方法，研究了1995-2020年进口贸易自由化对中国出口增长模式的影响；胡志明城市大学的Xuan Vinh Vo教授梳理了越南迈向数字经济之路的过程。
本次亚洲经济论坛Asian Economic Panel是都柏林大学爱尔兰中国研究院和孔子学院共同承办的，也是新冠疫情以来在爱尔兰的首次线下会议。