Forecasting And Outturns
The main forecasting work is carried out in FinPlan, but there is also a form to review the detailed Staff Plan Forecast within the Staff cluster. A Fee Income forecast is prepared at census time and this Census Forecast is transferred into the Financial Plan to act as the Net Fee Income portion of the Forecast. Usually it is left unchanged, but it may be further amended in the Financial Plan if needed.
Overview of Forecasting
A forecast combines Actuals for the Year To Date with estimates for the Remaining Periods. When setting up a forecast, we use budget information for the remaining periods. For example when preparing the Q2 forecast, the initial forecast at the start of the process will combine 6 months Actuals with the Budget for quarters 3 and 4. The Finance Manager then changes this initial forecast to reflect what they expect to happen. At any stage of forecasting, the FM may set the Net Direct Expenditure forecast to equal either the Budget or the Prior Outturn. The diagram below indicates how data is used to set the initial forecast and how it may be used by the FM to match budget. The FM will then make further manual modifications on an exception basis.
Forecast Input and Forecast Review
The forms used in forecasting are grouped on cards for
Detailed information regarding the time periods and how to enter data is set out here.
Rules
There are rules available to reset the forecast. As described above, the forecast is initially created by combining Actuals To Date plus Budget. The total that this produces is intended to act as a starting point for forecasting, but the Finance Manager may choose to run either of the rules below to produce a different starting point. If the rule is run after entering a forecast, it will overwrite the forecast already entered.
- Reset NDE to Archived Plan (Budget).
- Reset NDE to Prior Outturn.
For each of the rules, the data in the Remaining Periods will be amended so that it, plus the Year To Date amount, will provide the Forecast Year Total equal to the Archived Plan (Budget) or to the Prior Outturn depending on the rule run.
Using What-If Versions
In addition to resetting the Forecast to the Budget or to the Prior Outturn, it is also possible to use What-If versions to manage forecasts. A working forecast may be copied to a What-If version or copied from a What-If version to the Working Forecast.
The principal use of this will be to allow FMs to work on forecasting ahead of the period close and then to restore that forecast after the standard initial forecast of Actuals To Date + Budget for Remaining Periods is populated. The rules operate at individual unit level, and Central FPMA can run them for a full college. A sample workflow is shown below.
| Event | Action |
| Period 5 Close | Period 5 Actuals are imported to PBCS and if FMs wish to commence forecasting ahead of Q2 end, they request that the Q2 Forecast be populated. Central FPMA produce the initial Forecast. |
| During Period 6 | FMs optionally work on forecasting. |
| Prior to Period 6 Close | FMs 'back up' their forecast by copying it for desired units to a What-If version. 3 versions are available, and FMs will need to keep track of which version they use. Alternatively, if a number of FMs wish to have working forecasts at college-level copied to a What-If version, this can be performed centrally. |
| Period 6 Close | Period 6 Actuals are imported and combined with Budget for remaining periods to produce an initial forecast for Q2 for all units. |
| Period 6 Forecasting | FMs work from the standard initial working forecast or copy back the forecast stored in the What-If version. If a number of FMs wish to have forecasts at college-level copied from a What-If version, this can be performed centrally. |
Other Rules
There is a rule to pull the Forecast from Staff Plan, which retrieves data from the Remaining Periods in the Staff Plan. You would use this for example, if you have made some detailed updates to your Staff Plan-Working since the Forecast was initialised and wish to utilise that info at summary level in your financial forecast.
- Pull Forecast From Staff Plan
There is also a rule to clear the Comment:
- Clear Comment
Variables
User Variables are used for forecasting and if you have not already set them, you will need to set them. Any valid values may be set - see here for further info on User Variables.
myCollege is used to select a particular college (or V-P area) and is used on forms that are designed to operate at that level. Eg the College Forecast Input allows input for multiple units. The form does not work for a single unit, and so the myCollege variable is used.
myForecast. Some of the dashboards use this variable to determine the scenario to display - options are Forecast, Outturn1, Outturn2, Outturn3. The Forecast scenario contains the information currently being worked on, so while preparing a forecast that is normally the scenario you wish to display. However, if you wanted to view a historic Outturn in the dashboard, you would want to choose that as myForecast.
myForecastAccount. Some forms allow entry of the forecast for a particular account or account group, displaying multiple units at the same time. This variable is used to select the account (group) to display.
myYear. In future years we will be able to look back to historic years to view trends and so a variable is being used for the year. The value should be set to FY20 (19/20).
School. This variable is used to select from the Entity dimension and can be used for different types of unt - schools, admin units, colleges. If a school is selected, the data shown is for that school, if a college is selected, the data is for all of the college ie the sum of all units.
Dimensions used in Forecasting
Scenario. The forecast is always entered to the Forecast scenario. When completed, the forecast is copied to the relevant Outturn scenario - Outturn1, Outturn2 or Outturn3.
Version. The forecast is always entered to the Working version. When complete, the forecast is copied by central FPMA to the Final (TBC) version of the particular outturn scenario. 3 What-If versions are available to copy a forecast to/from: What-If1, What-If2, What-If3.